Inamhi issues weather warnings for heavy rains and thunderstorms across Ecuador

The National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology issued Meteorological Warning No. 87 regarding heavy rains and thunderstorms across Ecuador. This warning covers a period starting from 17:00 on Friday, November 13, 2026, until 07:00 on Sunday, November 15, 2026. The weather patterns are linked to the mature phase of the El Niño phenomenon, a tropospheric Kelvin wave, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

Regional rainfall forecasts

Heavy to intense rainfall is forecasted for the Litoral region. Specifically, the provinces of Esmeraldas, Santo Domingo, Los Ríos, Guayas, Manabí, Santa Elena, and El Oro are expected to experience significant precipitation. Within Guayas province, the canton of Playas is identified as a specific area expecting heavy rains. Other locations in Guayas, including Guayaquil, Durán, Daule, Milagro, and Samborondón, are expected to receive normal or moderate rain.

The Andean region is expected to see moderate to strong rainfall in the western sectors of Pichincha, Cotopaxi, Bolívar, and Loja. In the Sierra region, rainfall is expected during the afternoon in Azuay, Cañar, Chimborazo, Cotopaxi, Imbabura, Loja, and Pichincha. Meanwhile, the Galapagos Islands are predicted to receive moderate to strong rainfall.

In the Amazon region, light to moderate rainfall is expected in the foothills of Sucumbíos, Napo, Pastaza, Morona Santiago, and Zamora Chinchipe. Specifically, rainfall is expected to be normal or moderate in Morona Santiago, Pastaza, and Zamora Chinchipe, while drizzle is expected in Napo and Sucumbíos.

Flood risks and historical context

Inamhi identified potential river flooding and overflows in several provinces. The areas at risk of flooding include Esmeraldas, Santo Domingo, Guayas, Santa Elena, Los Ríos, and El Oro. These risks are associated with the current meteorological conditions across the country.

The current weather conditions are driven by the mature phase of the El Niño phenomenon. These atmospheric factors include a tropospheric Kelvin wave and the Intertropical Convergence Zone. These elements contribute to the intensity of the rainfall patterns observed across the different geographic regions of Ecuador.

The impact of El Niño on the region has been significant in the past. Flooding caused by El Niño previously resulted in deaths, missing persons, and evacuations in Guayas on October 28, 2026. The current warnings aim to address the ongoing weather patterns that continue to affect the stability of the region.

Glossary

• Guayas — Guayas is a province whose economic projection favors the Guayas basin. The Guayas plain features fertile alluvial soils that support agriculture and forestry.
• Esmeraldas — Esmeraldas is a coastal city in northwestern Ecuador and the capital of the Esmeraldas Province. It serves as a major seaport and a principal trading hub for the region's agricultural and lumber resources.
• Los Ríos — Los Ríos is one of the provinces expected to experience significant precipitation. It is located in the Litoral region of Ecuador.
• Manabí — Manabí is a province in Ecuador that is expected to experience significant precipitation. It is also the location of the central-south Manabí conurbation.
• El Oro — El Oro is a province in the Litoral region of Ecuador. It is an area expected to experience significant precipitation and potential flooding risks.